TalkLeft talks about statements by J. Cofer Black, the State Department's Coordinator for Counterterrorism, that the United States is closer to capturing Osama bin Laden. She suggests this could increase the possibility of an "October Surprise," referring to the possibility that the Bush administration might delay public announcement of bin Laden's capture in order to ensure that Bush wins re-election.
"What I tell people, I would be surprised but not necessarily shocked if we wake up tomorrow and he's been caught along with all his lieutenants. That can happen because of the programs and infrastructure in place," he told Geo.
While I would not put it past the Bush administration to use Osama's capture for political gain, I doubt bin Laden is currently waiting in a holding cell in Gitmo. Since Osama was not mentioned during the Republican Convention, I suspect he has not been captured - yet. An "bin Laden bounce" could win Bush the election, so I would not be surprised if additional resources have been devoted to his capture over the past few months.
At 8:59 on September 13, 2004, Derek M wrote:
The Economist reported that the US has put intense pressure on Afghanistan recently to find Osama, and Afghanistan has responded with more troop deployment and military activity in the mountains where they think he might be.
At 4:19 on September 16, 2004, Martey wrote:
The entire situation puts me in an awkward position. I want Osama to be caught as much as anyone, but I would rather that his capture be an apolitical event. For that to happen, he would have to remain unapprehended until November.